Clinton Get's Crucial Win in Pennsylvania
Hillary Clinton wins PA by 10% or over 214,000 votes with 96% of votes counted. This is great news for most Republicans as the race continues and the constant attacks of democrat on democrat will continue for the next few weeks and possibly months. Separation of the Democratic Party is increasing as recent polls have suggested the 26% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain in the fall over Obama (the future nominee of the Democratic Party) and 13% would not even show up. A similar number of Obama supporters would be in the same boat if Clinton were to get the nomination.
Clinton has narrowed the popular vote lead down to around 500,000 tonight. 2 weeks from now when North Carolina and Indiana vote no real change will really occur. Obama will win North Carolina and Clinton will win Indiana making for a wash and continuing the primary further on into late May and into at least early June. Then comes the real entertainment.
Hillary will try to get Michigan and Florida delegates seated and will make an argument that the momentum in the election has changed and the she not Obama will be the stronger candidate because she has won the most important states, possibly tied the popular vote, and won the biggest states for the nomination. Momentum will likely be on her side but she will have to take a substantial number of super delegates to get the nomination something I don't expect to happen.
Obama will make the argument that according to the rules set forth that he has won the nomination, received the most popular vote (although a tie is possible), and most importantly has won more pledged delegates. If the nomination is taken from Obama, the Democratic Party will be irreparably damaged with major constituencies alienated.
The next few months should be fun. McCain is in good position right now. The one possible spoiler for McCain though is the Bob Barr factor, possible and likely nominee of the Libertarian Party, who recently polled in at getting 7% of the vote. Keep in mind he has had no national campaign yet and his numbers would likely increase due to alienated conservatives looking for a place for their vote. The one positive for McCain though and one that could potentially erase the Bob Barr factor is the Ralph Nader campaign. Recent polls have indicated that up to 17% of the Democrats would consider voting for Nader if their nominee does not get elected.
McCain is in solid position right now but he must capitalize on his strengths and minimize his weakness. This is an unusual situation though as McCain's expertise is foreign affairs where a very unpopular war comes into play. In order to win McCain must minimize his focus on the war and create a viable exit strategy that would allow for a further reduction in troop deployments. Americans as a whole want troops out but they want victory. This will be McCain's strength. McCain must create a strategy for exit of Iraq while still pushing for victory. Further, McCain must define what victory is and how it will be reached so troop levels can be drawn down in his first 4 years in office. If he can do this McCain should be able to minimize the affects of an unpopular war and the unpopular Republican President George W Bush and go on to win the presidency.
Secondly, McCain must pick a solid choice for VP that would help reintegrate alienated conservatives. The pick should be from a state that would not normally be Republican or one that is right now a draw. The pick should also be recognizable nationwide and preferably help McCain minimize his weakness's. The best pick would be a popular governor that is knowledgeable about economics.
McCain can win but he must stay positive, create an exit strategy, define victory and a plan to achieve that victory in his first 4 years in office, and pick a solid VP that would minimize his weakness's and reintegrate disenfranchised conservatives. McCain must act resolutely during the democratic infighting.
